Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink

Julie Loisel, Angela Gallego‐Sala, Matthew J. Amesbury, Gabriel Magnan, Gusti Z. Anshari, David W. Beilman, Juan C. Benavides, Jerome Blewett, Philip Camill, Dan J. Charman, Sakonvan Chawchai, A. Hedgpeth, Thomas Kleinen, Atte Korhola, David J. Large, Claudia A Mansilla, Jurek Müller, Simon van Bellen, Jason B. West, Zicheng Yu, Jill L. Bubier, Michelle Garneau, Tim R. Moore, A. Britta K. Sannel, Susan Page, Minna Vӓliranta, Michel Bechtold, Victor Brovkin, Lydia E.S. Cole, Jeffrey P. Chanton, Torben R. Christensen, Marissa A. Davies, François De Vleeschouwer, Sarah A. Finkelstein, Steve Frolking, Mariusz Gałka, Laure Gandois, Nicholas T. Girkin, Lorna I. Harris, Andreas Heinemeyer, Alison M. Hoyt, Miriam C. Jones, Fortunat Joos, Sari Juutinen, Karl Kaiser, Terri Lacourse, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Tuula Larmola, Jens Leifeld, Annalea Lohila, Alice M. Milner, Kari Minkkinen, Patrick Moss, B. David A. Naafs, J. E. Nichols, J. A. O’Donnell, Richard J. Payne, Michael Philben, Sanna Piilo, Anne Quillet, Amila Sandaruwan Ratnayake, Thomas P. Roland, Sofie Sjögersten, Oliver Sonnentag, Graeme T. Swindles, Ward Swinnen, Julie Talbot, Claire C. Treat, Amy Valach, Jiequn Wu

Abstract
The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus. Peatlands are impacted by climate and land-use changes, with feedback to warming by acting as either sources or sinks of carbon. Expert elicitation combined with literature review reveals key drivers of change that alter peatland carbon dynamics, with implications for improving models.
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Julie Loisel, Angela Gallego‐Sala, Matthew J. Amesbury, Gabriel Magnan, Gusti Z. Anshari, David W. Beilman, Juan C. Benavides, Jerome Blewett, Philip Camill, Dan J. Charman, Sakonvan Chawchai, A. Hedgpeth, Thomas Kleinen, Atte Korhola, David J. Large, Claudia A Mansilla, Jurek Müller, Simon van Bellen, Jason B. West, et al.. 2020. Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink. Nature Climate Change, Volume 11, Issue 1, 11(1):70–77.
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