Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada
Lydia Cheng, Hadi A. Dhiyebi, Monali Varia, Kyle Atanas, Nivetha Srikanthan, Samina Hayat, Heather Ikert, Meghan Fuzzen, Carly Sing-Judge, Yash Badlani, Eli Zeeb, Leslie M. Bragg, Robert Delatolla, John P. Giesy, Elaine Gilliland, Mark R. Servos
Abstract
We determined correlations between SARS-CoV-2 load in untreated water and COVID-19 cases and patient hospitalizations before the Omicron variant (September 2020-November 2021) at 2 wastewater treatment plants in the Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada. Using pre-Omicron correlations, we estimated incident COVID-19 cases during Omicron outbreaks (November 2021-June 2022). The strongest correlation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 load and COVID-19 cases occurred 1 day after sampling (r = 0.911). The strongest correlation between wastewater load and COVID-19 patient hospitalizations occurred 4 days after sampling (r = 0.819). At the peak of the Omicron BA.2 outbreak in April 2022, reported COVID-19 cases were underestimated 19-fold because of changes in clinical testing. Wastewater data provided information for local decision-making and are a useful component of COVID-19 surveillance systems.- Cite:
- Lydia Cheng, Hadi A. Dhiyebi, Monali Varia, Kyle Atanas, Nivetha Srikanthan, Samina Hayat, Heather Ikert, Meghan Fuzzen, Carly Sing-Judge, Yash Badlani, Eli Zeeb, Leslie M. Bragg, Robert Delatolla, John P. Giesy, Elaine Gilliland, and Mark R. Servos. 2023. Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada. Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 29, Issue 8, 29(8).
- Copy Citation:
Export citation
@article{Cheng-2023-Omicron,
title = "Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada",
author = "Cheng, Lydia and
Dhiyebi, Hadi A. and
Varia, Monali and
Atanas, Kyle and
Srikanthan, Nivetha and
Hayat, Samina and
Ikert, Heather and
Fuzzen, Meghan and
Sing-Judge, Carly and
Badlani, Yash and
Zeeb, Eli and
Bragg, Leslie M. and
Delatolla, Robert and
Giesy, John P. and
Gilliland, Elaine and
Servos, Mark R.",
journal = "Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 29, Issue 8",
volume = "29",
number = "8",
year = "2023",
publisher = "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)",
url = "https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G23-24001",
doi = "10.3201/eid2908.221580",
abstract = "We determined correlations between SARS-CoV-2 load in untreated water and COVID-19 cases and patient hospitalizations before the Omicron variant (September 2020-November 2021) at 2 wastewater treatment plants in the Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada. Using pre-Omicron correlations, we estimated incident COVID-19 cases during Omicron outbreaks (November 2021-June 2022). The strongest correlation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 load and COVID-19 cases occurred 1 day after sampling (r = 0.911). The strongest correlation between wastewater load and COVID-19 patient hospitalizations occurred 4 days after sampling (r = 0.819). At the peak of the Omicron BA.2 outbreak in April 2022, reported COVID-19 cases were underestimated 19-fold because of changes in clinical testing. Wastewater data provided information for local decision-making and are a useful component of COVID-19 surveillance systems.",
}
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<modsCollection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3">
<mods ID="Cheng-2023-Omicron">
<titleInfo>
<title>Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Lydia</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Cheng</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Hadi</namePart>
<namePart type="given">A</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Dhiyebi</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Monali</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Varia</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Kyle</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Atanas</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Nivetha</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Srikanthan</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Samina</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Hayat</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Heather</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Ikert</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Meghan</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Fuzzen</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Carly</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Sing-Judge</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Yash</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Badlani</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Eli</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Zeeb</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Leslie</namePart>
<namePart type="given">M</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Bragg</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Robert</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Delatolla</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">John</namePart>
<namePart type="given">P</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Giesy</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Elaine</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Gilliland</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Mark</namePart>
<namePart type="given">R</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Servos</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<originInfo>
<dateIssued>2023</dateIssued>
</originInfo>
<typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
<genre authority="bibutilsgt">journal article</genre>
<relatedItem type="host">
<titleInfo>
<title>Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 29, Issue 8</title>
</titleInfo>
<originInfo>
<issuance>continuing</issuance>
<publisher>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)</publisher>
</originInfo>
<genre authority="marcgt">periodical</genre>
<genre authority="bibutilsgt">academic journal</genre>
</relatedItem>
<abstract>We determined correlations between SARS-CoV-2 load in untreated water and COVID-19 cases and patient hospitalizations before the Omicron variant (September 2020-November 2021) at 2 wastewater treatment plants in the Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada. Using pre-Omicron correlations, we estimated incident COVID-19 cases during Omicron outbreaks (November 2021-June 2022). The strongest correlation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 load and COVID-19 cases occurred 1 day after sampling (r = 0.911). The strongest correlation between wastewater load and COVID-19 patient hospitalizations occurred 4 days after sampling (r = 0.819). At the peak of the Omicron BA.2 outbreak in April 2022, reported COVID-19 cases were underestimated 19-fold because of changes in clinical testing. Wastewater data provided information for local decision-making and are a useful component of COVID-19 surveillance systems.</abstract>
<identifier type="citekey">Cheng-2023-Omicron</identifier>
<identifier type="doi">10.3201/eid2908.221580</identifier>
<location>
<url>https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G23-24001</url>
</location>
<part>
<date>2023</date>
<detail type="volume"><number>29</number></detail>
<detail type="issue"><number>8</number></detail>
</part>
</mods>
</modsCollection>
%0 Journal Article %T Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada %A Cheng, Lydia %A Dhiyebi, Hadi A. %A Varia, Monali %A Atanas, Kyle %A Srikanthan, Nivetha %A Hayat, Samina %A Ikert, Heather %A Fuzzen, Meghan %A Sing-Judge, Carly %A Badlani, Yash %A Zeeb, Eli %A Bragg, Leslie M. %A Delatolla, Robert %A Giesy, John P. %A Gilliland, Elaine %A Servos, Mark R. %J Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 29, Issue 8 %D 2023 %V 29 %N 8 %I Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) %F Cheng-2023-Omicron %X We determined correlations between SARS-CoV-2 load in untreated water and COVID-19 cases and patient hospitalizations before the Omicron variant (September 2020-November 2021) at 2 wastewater treatment plants in the Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada. Using pre-Omicron correlations, we estimated incident COVID-19 cases during Omicron outbreaks (November 2021-June 2022). The strongest correlation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 load and COVID-19 cases occurred 1 day after sampling (r = 0.911). The strongest correlation between wastewater load and COVID-19 patient hospitalizations occurred 4 days after sampling (r = 0.819). At the peak of the Omicron BA.2 outbreak in April 2022, reported COVID-19 cases were underestimated 19-fold because of changes in clinical testing. Wastewater data provided information for local decision-making and are a useful component of COVID-19 surveillance systems. %R 10.3201/eid2908.221580 %U https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G23-24001 %U https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2908.221580
Markdown (Informal)
[Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada](https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G23-24001) (Cheng et al., GWF 2023)
- Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada (Cheng et al., GWF 2023)
ACL
- Lydia Cheng, Hadi A. Dhiyebi, Monali Varia, Kyle Atanas, Nivetha Srikanthan, Samina Hayat, Heather Ikert, Meghan Fuzzen, Carly Sing-Judge, Yash Badlani, Eli Zeeb, Leslie M. Bragg, Robert Delatolla, John P. Giesy, Elaine Gilliland, and Mark R. Servos. 2023. Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada. Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 29, Issue 8, 29(8).