Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters
David Rounce, Regine Hock, Fabien Maussion, Romain Hugonnet, William Kochtitzky, Matthias Huss, Étienne Berthier, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Loris Compagno, Luke Copland, Daniel Farinotti, Brian Menounos, Robert McNabb
Abstract
Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.- Cite:
- David Rounce, Regine Hock, Fabien Maussion, Romain Hugonnet, William Kochtitzky, Matthias Huss, Étienne Berthier, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Loris Compagno, Luke Copland, Daniel Farinotti, Brian Menounos, and Robert McNabb. 2023. Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters. Science, Volume 379, Issue 6627, 379(6627):78–83.
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@article{Rounce-2023-Global,
title = "Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters",
author = "Rounce, David and
Hock, Regine and
Maussion, Fabien and
Hugonnet, Romain and
Kochtitzky, William and
Huss, Matthias and
Berthier, {\'E}tienne and
Brinkerhoff, Douglas and
Compagno, Loris and
Copland, Luke and
Farinotti, Daniel and
Menounos, Brian and
McNabb, Robert",
journal = "Science, Volume 379, Issue 6627",
volume = "379",
number = "6627",
year = "2023",
publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)",
url = "https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G23-67001",
doi = "10.1126/science.abo1324",
pages = "78--83",
abstract = "Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 {\mbox{$\pm$}} 6{\%} (+1.5{\mbox{$^\circ$}}C) to 41 {\mbox{$\pm$}} 11{\%} (+4{\mbox{$^\circ$}}C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 {\mbox{$\pm$}} 26 to 154 {\mbox{$\pm$}} 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 {\mbox{$\pm$}} 9 to 83 {\mbox{$\pm$}} 7{\%} of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7{\mbox{$^\circ$}}C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 {\mbox{$\pm$}} 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.",
}
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<abstract>Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 \pm 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 \pm 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 \pm 26 to 154 \pm 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 \pm 9 to 83 \pm 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 \pm 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.</abstract>
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%0 Journal Article %T Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters %A Rounce, David %A Hock, Regine %A Maussion, Fabien %A Hugonnet, Romain %A Kochtitzky, William %A Huss, Matthias %A Berthier, Étienne %A Brinkerhoff, Douglas %A Compagno, Loris %A Copland, Luke %A Farinotti, Daniel %A Menounos, Brian %A McNabb, Robert %J Science, Volume 379, Issue 6627 %D 2023 %V 379 %N 6627 %I American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) %F Rounce-2023-Global %X Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 \pm 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 \pm 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 \pm 26 to 154 \pm 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 \pm 9 to 83 \pm 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 \pm 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100. %R 10.1126/science.abo1324 %U https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G23-67001 %U https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo1324 %P 78-83
Markdown (Informal)
[Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters](https://gwf-uwaterloo.github.io/gwf-publications/G23-67001) (Rounce et al., GWF 2023)
- Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters (Rounce et al., GWF 2023)
ACL
- David Rounce, Regine Hock, Fabien Maussion, Romain Hugonnet, William Kochtitzky, Matthias Huss, Étienne Berthier, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Loris Compagno, Luke Copland, Daniel Farinotti, Brian Menounos, and Robert McNabb. 2023. Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters. Science, Volume 379, Issue 6627, 379(6627):78–83.