Amaury Tilmant
2019
A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams – The case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin
Tewodros Negash Kahsay,
Diane Arjoon,
Onno Kuik,
Roy Brouwer,
Amaury Tilmant,
Pieter van der Zaag
Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 117
A novel integrated hydro-economic modeling framework that links a bottom-up partial equilibrium (engineering) model with a top-down (economic) general equilibrium model is developed for assessing the regional economic impacts of water resources management and infrastructure development decisions in a transboundary river basin. The engineering model is employed first to solve the water allocation problem for a river system in a partial equilibrium setting. The resulting system-wide changes in optimal water allocation are subsequently fed into the general equilibrium model to provide an economy-wide perspective. This integrated hydro-economic modeling framework is illustrated using the Eastern Nile River basin as a case study. The engineering-based stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) model of the Eastern Nile basin is coupled with the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP-W to assess the economy-wide impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Eastern Nile economies.