Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.

The retreat of mountain glaciers affects mountain hazards and hydrology, and new methods are needed to rapidly map glacier retreat at planetary scales. We automatically map 14,329 glaciers (30,063 km 2 ) in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, from 1984 to 2020 using satellite image archives from the Landsat 4, 5, 7 and 8 missions and reveal an acceleration in area loss that commenced in 2011. Glacier fragmentation, disappearance, and proglacial lake development also accelerated, as did the retreat of glaciers to higher elevations. Our annually-resolved method relies on the existence of previously published and manually validated glacier inventories from the mid-1980s and mid-2000's. Our methods performed well for clean ice glaciers, had occasional errors when proglacial lakes were present, and consistently underestimated the area of debris-covered glaciers. Clean ice glacier area loss accelerated sevenfold between the early [1984–2010] and late [2011−2020] epochs. This acceleration yielded rates of area shrinkage of −49 ± 7 km 2 a −1 [early] and − 340 ± 40 km 2 a −1 [late] with accelerated losses (32-fold increase) for small glaciers on Vancouver Island over the last decade. Glacier fragmentation accelerated from 26 ± 5.6 fragments a −1 to 88 ± 39 fragments a −1 . About 1141 glaciers fell below our 0.05 km 2 detection limit and so disappeared from our database, representing a loss of 8%. Proglacial lake area growth accelerated from 9.2 ± 1.1 km 2 a −1 to 49 ± 4.5 km 2 a −1 . We also observed an acceleration in the upwards migration of median glacier elevations for clean ice glaciers from 0.31 ± 0.08 m a −1 to 4.7 ± 0.7 m a −1 . Our workflow demonstrates the advantages of annual resolution glacier inventories and contributes towards the implementation of planetary mapping of glaciers and glacier attributes at annual resolution. • We produced annually-resolved [1984–2020], western Canadian glacier inventory. • Glaciers retreat, fragmentation and disappearance accelerated over last decade. • Our workflow could yield planetary-scale, annual glacier inventories.

Abstract Reliable, long-term records of glacier mass change are invaluable to the glaciological and climate-change communities and used to assess the importance of glacier wastage on streamflow. Here we evaluate the in-situ observations of glacier mass change for Place (1982–2020) and Peyto glaciers (1983–2020) in western Canada. We use geodetic mass balance to calibrate a physically-based mass-balance model coupled with an ice dynamics routine. We find large discrepancies between the glaciological and geodetic records for the periods 1987–1993 (Place) and 2001–2006 (Peyto). Over the period of observations, the exclusion of ice dynamics in the model increased simulated cumulative mass change by ~10.6 (24%) and 7.1 (21%) m w.e. for Place and Peyto glacier, respectively. Cumulative mass loss using geodetic, modelled and glaciological approaches are respectively − 30.5 ± 4.5, − 32.0 ± 3.6, − 29.7 ± 3.6 m w.e. for Peyto Glacier (1982–2017) and − 45.9 ± 5.2, − 43.1 ± 3.1, − 38.4 ± 5.1 m w.e. for Place Glacier (1981–2019). Based on discrepancies noted in the mass-balance records for certain decades (e.g. 1990s), we caution the community if these data are to be used for hydrological model development.

Abstract. This paper presents hydrometeorological, glaciological and geospatial data from the Peyto Glacier Research Basin (PGRB) in the Canadian Rockies. Peyto Glacier has been of interest to glaciological and hydrological researchers since the 1960s, when it was chosen as one of five glacier basins in Canada for the study of mass and water balance during the International Hydrological Decade (IHD, 1965–1974). Intensive studies of the glacier and observations of the glacier mass balance continued after the IHD, when the initial seasonal meteorological stations were discontinued, then restarted as continuous stations in the late 1980s. The corresponding hydrometric observations were discontinued in 1977 and restarted in 2013. Datasets presented in this paper include high-resolution, co-registered digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from original air photos and lidar surveys; hourly off-glacier meteorological data recorded from 1987 to the present; precipitation data from the nearby Bow Summit weather station; and long-term hydrological and glaciological model forcing datasets derived from bias-corrected reanalysis products. These data are crucial for studying climate change and variability in the basin and understanding the hydrological responses of the basin to both glacier and climate change. The comprehensive dataset for the PGRB is a valuable and exceptionally long-standing testament to the impacts of climate change on the cryosphere in the high-mountain environment. The dataset is publicly available from Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0259 (Pradhananga et al., 2020).

Glaciers provide cold, turbid runoff to many mountain streams in the late summer and buffer against years with low snowfall. The input of glacial meltwater to streams maintains unique habitats and support a diversity of stream flora and fauna. In western Canada, glaciers are anticipated to retreat by 60–80% by the end of the century, and this retreat will invoke widespread changes in mountain ecosystems. We used a space-for-time substitution along a gradient of glacierization in western Canada to develop insights into changes that may occur in glaciated regions over the coming decades. Here we report on observed changes in physical (temperature, turbidity), and chemical (dissolved and total nutrients) characteristics of mountain streams and the associated shifts in their diatom communities during de-glacierization. Shifts in habitat characteristics across gradients include changes in nutrient concentrations, light penetration, temperatures, and flow, all of which have led to distinct changes in diatom community composition. Importantly, glacial-fed rivers were 3–5 °C cooler than rivers without glacial contributions. Declines in glacial meltwater contribution to streams resulted in shifts in the timing of nutrient fluxes and lower concentrations of total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and higher dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and light penetration. The above set of conditions were linked to the overgrowth of the benthic diatom Didymosphenia geminata . These changes in stream condition and D. geminata colony development primarily occurred in streams with marginal (2–5%) to no glacier cover. Our data support a hypothesis that climate-induced changes in river hydrochemistry and physical condition lead to a phenological mismatch that favors D. geminata bloom development. • We use a space-for-time substitution to examine glacier recession impacts on rivers. • Temperature changes through time and by season were greatest in glacierized systems. • Peaks in turbidity and nutrients decreased and shifted to earlier in the year. • These shifts cause a phenological mismatch that favors D. geminata colony formation.

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking rapidly, altering regional hydrology1, raising global sea level2 and elevating natural hazards3. Yet, owing to the scarcity of constrained mass loss observations, glacier evolution during the satellite era is known only partially, as a geographic and temporal patchwork4,5. Here we reveal the accelerated, albeit contrasting, patterns of glacier mass loss during the early twenty-first century. Using largely untapped satellite archives, we chart surface elevation changes at a high spatiotemporal resolution over all of Earth's glaciers. We extensively validate our estimates against independent, high-precision measurements and present a globally complete and consistent estimate of glacier mass change. We show that during 2000-2019, glaciers lost a mass of 267 ± 16 gigatonnes per year, equivalent to 21 ± 3 per cent of the observed sea-level rise6. We identify a mass loss acceleration of 48 ± 16 gigatonnes per year per decade, explaining 6 to 19 per cent of the observed acceleration of sea-level rise. Particularly, thinning rates of glaciers outside ice sheet peripheries doubled over the past two decades. Glaciers currently lose more mass, and at similar or larger acceleration rates, than the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets taken separately7-9. By uncovering the patterns of mass change in many regions, we find contrasting glacier fluctuations that agree with the decadal variability in precipitation and temperature. These include a North Atlantic anomaly of decelerated mass loss, a strongly accelerated loss from northwestern American glaciers, and the apparent end of the Karakoram anomaly of mass gain10. We anticipate our highly resolved estimates to advance the understanding of drivers that govern the distribution of glacier change, and to extend our capabilities of predicting these changes at all scales. Predictions robustly benchmarked against observations are critically needed to design adaptive policies for the local- and regional-scale management of water resources and cryospheric risks, as well as for the global-scale mitigation of sea-level rise.

The mass-balance—elevation relation for a given glacier is required for many numerical models of ice flow. Direct measurements of this relation using remotely-sensed methods are complicated by ice dynamics, so observations are currently limited to glaciers where surface mass-balance measurements are routinely made. We test the viability of using the continuity equation to estimate annual surface mass balance between flux-gates in the absence of in situ measurements, on five glaciers in the Columbia Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. Repeat airborne laser scanning surveys of glacier surface elevation, ice penetrating radar surveys and publicly available maps of ice thickness are used to estimate changes in surface elevation and ice flux. We evaluate this approach by comparing modeled to observed mass balance. Modeled mass-balance gradients well-approximate those obtained from direct measurement of surface mass balance, with a mean difference of +6.6 <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="m1"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math> 4%. Regressing modeled mass balance, equilibrium line altitudes are on average 15 m higher than satellite-observations of the transient snow line. Estimates of mass balance over flux bins compare less favorably than the gradients. Average mean error (+0.03 <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="m2"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math> 0.07 m w.e.) between observed and modeled mass balance over flux bins is relatively small, yet mean absolute error (0.55 <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="m3"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math> 0.18 m w.e.) and average modeled mass-balance uncertainty (0.57 m w.e.) are large. Mass conservation, assessed with glaciological data, is respected (when estimates are within 1σ uncertainties) for 84% of flux bins representing 86% of total glacier area. Uncertainty on ice velocity, especially for areas where surface velocity is low (<10 m a −1 ) contributes the greatest error in estimating ice flux. We find that using modeled ice thicknesses yields comparable modeled mass-balance gradients relative to using observations of ice thickness, but we caution against over-interpreting individual flux-bin mass balances due to large mass-balance residuals. Given the performance of modeled ice thickness and the increasing availability of ice velocity and surface topography data, we suggest that similar efforts to produce mass-balance gradients using modern high-resolution datasets are feasible on larger scales.

Over the past decade, western North America glaciers experienced strong mass loss. Regional mass loss during the ablation season is influenced by air temperature, but the importance of other factors such as changes in surface albedo remains uncertain. We examine changes in surface albedo for 17 glaciated regions of western North America as documented in a 20-year record (2000 to 2019) of MODIS daily snow albedo (MOD10A1). Trend analysis reveals that albedo declined for 4% to 81% of the albedo grid cells, and the largest negative trends were situated south of 60°N and in the provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. Sen's slope estimates indicate that 15 of 17 regions showed a decline of which the majority of the largest declines occurred within 100 m of glacier median elevation, suggesting that these declines are driven by a rise of the transient snowline. For most regions, albedo correlates strongly to temperature, and albedo trend in the Chugach region of Alaska, the South Coast, Southern Interior and Central and Southern Rockies of Canada show a significant relationship to aerosols optical depth. Temperature is approximately 2–6 times more predictive of the variation in albedo than AOD for the majority of regions, except the Southern Interior and Southern Rockies where albedo shows a greater dependence on AOD. Investigation of broadband albedo (MCD43A3) for snow grid cells above glacier median elevation in the Central and Southern Rockies shows that declines in the visible and near infrared portions of the spectrum are linked to the presence of forest fire generated aerosols. The results of this study indicate that glacier surface mass balance experiences a regional dependence on forest fire generated light absorbing particles. • End of melt season glacier albedo is declining across in western North America. • Albedo decline is largest at glacier median elevation. • Albedo decline strongly correlates to temperature increase. • Albedo decline is correlated with forest fire generated aerosols regionally.

Abstract. The interaction of mountain terrain with meteorological processes causes substantial temporal and spatial variability in snow accumulation and ablation. Processes impacted by complex terrain include large-scale orographic enhancement of snowfall, small-scale processes such as gravitational and wind-induced transport of snow, and variability in the radiative balance such as through terrain shadowing. In this study, a multi-scale modelling approach is proposed to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of high-mountain snowpacks. The multi-scale approach combines atmospheric data from a numerical weather prediction system at the kilometre scale with process-based downscaling techniques to drive the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) at spatial resolutions allowing for explicit snow redistribution modelling. CHM permits a variable spatial resolution by using the efficient terrain representation by unstructured triangular meshes. The model simulates processes such as radiation shadowing and irradiance to slopes, blowing-snow transport (saltation and suspension) and sublimation, avalanching, forest canopy interception and sublimation, and snowpack melt. Short-term, kilometre-scale atmospheric forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale Model through its High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) drive CHM and are downscaled to the unstructured mesh scale. In particular, a new wind-downscaling strategy uses pre-computed wind fields from a mass-conserving wind model at 50 m resolution to perturb the mesoscale HRDPS wind and to account for the influence of topographic features on wind direction and speed. HRDPS-CHM was applied to simulate snow conditions down to 50 m resolution during winter 2017/2018 in a domain around the Kananaskis Valley (∼1000 km2) in the Canadian Rockies. Simulations were evaluated using high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) snow depth data and snow persistence indexes derived from remotely sensed imagery. Results included model falsifications and showed that both wind-induced and gravitational snow redistribution need to be simulated to capture the snowpack variability and the evolution of snow depth and persistence with elevation across the region. Accumulation of windblown snow on leeward slopes and associated snow cover persistence were underestimated in a CHM simulation driven by wind fields that did not capture lee-side flow recirculation and associated wind speed decreases. A terrain-based metric helped to identify these lee-side areas and improved the wind field and the associated snow redistribution. An overestimation of snow redistribution from windward to leeward slopes and subsequent avalanching was still found. The results of this study highlight the need for further improvements of snowdrift-permitting models for large-scale applications, in particular the representation of subgrid topographic effects on snow transport.

Abstract. This paper presents hydrometeorological, glaciological and geospatial data of the Peyto Glacier Research Basin (PGRB) in the Canadian Rockies. Peyto Glacier has been of interest to glaciological and hydrological researchers since the 1960s, when it was chosen as one of five glacier basins in Canada for the study of mass and water balance during the International Hydrological Decade (IHD, 1965–1974). Intensive studies of the glacier and observations of the glacier mass balance continued after the IHD, when the initial seasonal meteorological stations were discontinued, then restarted as continuous stations in the late 1980s. The corresponding hydrometric observations were discontinued in 1977 and restarted in 2013. Data sets presented in this paper include: high resolution, co-registered DEMs derived from original air photos and LiDAR surveys; hourly off-glacier meteorological data recorded from 1987 to present; precipitation data from nearby Bow Summit; and long-term hydrological and glaciological model forcing datasets derived from bias-corrected reanalysis products. These data are crucial for studying climate change and variability in the basin, and to understanding the hydrological responses of the basin to both glacier and climate change. The comprehensive data set for the PGRB is a valuable and exceptionally long-standing testament to the impacts of climate change on the cryosphere in the high mountain environment. The dataset is publicly available from Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0259 (Pradhananga et al., 2020).

Abstract. The interaction of mountain terrain with meteorological processes causes substantial temporal and spatial variability in snow accumulation and ablation. Processes impacted by complex terrain include large-scale orographic enhancement of snowfall, small-scale processes such as gravitational and wind-induced transport of snow, and variability in the radiative balance such as through terrain shadowing. In this study, a multi-scale modeling approach is proposed to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of high mountain snowpacks using the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM), a multi-scale, spatially distributed modelling framework. CHM permits a variable spatial resolution by using the efficient terrain representation by unstructured triangular meshes. The model simulates processes such as radiation shadowing and irradiance to slopes, blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, avalanching, forest canopy interception and sublimation and snowpack melt. Short-term, km-scale atmospheric forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale Model through its High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) drive CHM, and were downscaled to the unstructured mesh scale using process-based procedures. In particular, a new wind downscaling strategy combines meso-scale HRDPS outputs and micro-scale pre-computed wind fields to allow for blowing snow calculations. HRDPS-CHM was applied to simulate snow conditions down to 50-m resolution during winter 2017/2018 in a domain around the Kananaskis Valley (~1000 km2) in the Canadian Rockies. Simulations were evaluated using high-resolution airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) snow depth data and snow persistence indexes derived from remotely sensed imagery. Results included model falsifications and showed that both blowing snow and gravitational snow redistribution need to be simulated to capture the snowpack variability and the evolution of snow depth and persistence with elevation across the region. Accumulation of wind-blown snow on leeward slopes and associated snow-cover persistence were underestimated in a CHM simulation driven by wind fields that did not capture leeside flow recirculation and associated wind speed decreases. A terrain-based metric helped to identify these lee-side areas and improved the wind field and the associated snow redistribution. An overestimation of snow redistribution from windward to leeward slopes and subsequent avalanching was still found. The results of this study highlight the need for further improvements of snowdrift-permitting models for large-scale applications, in particular the representation of subgrid topographic effects on snow transport.

Abstract Finely resolved geodetic data provide an opportunity to assess the extent and morphology of crevasses and their change over time. Crevasses have the potential to bias geodetic measurements of elevation and mass change unless they are properly accounted for. We developed a framework that automatically maps and extracts crevasse geometry and masks them where they interfere with surface mass-balance assessment. Our study examines airborne light detection and ranging digital elevation models (LiDAR DEMs) from Haig Glacier, which is experiencing a transient response in its crevassed upper regions as the glacier thins, using a self-organizing map algorithm. This method successfully extracts and characterizes ~1000 crevasses, with an overall accuracy of 94%. The resulting map provides insight into stress and flow conditions. The crevasse mask also enables refined geodetic estimates of summer mass balance. From differencing of September and April LiDAR DEMs, the raw LiDAR DEM gives a 9% overestimate in the magnitude of glacier thinning over the summer: −5.48 m compared with a mean elevation change of −5.02 m when crevasses are masked out. Without identification and removal of crevasses, the LiDAR-derived summer mass balance therefore has a negative bias relative to the glaciological surface mass balance.

Western North American (WNA) glaciers outside of Alaska cover 14,384 km2 of mountainous terrain. No comprehensive analysis of recent mass change exists for this region. We generated over 15,000 multisensor digital elevation models from spaceborne optical imagery to provide an assessment of mass change for WNA over the period 2000–2018. These glaciers lost 117 ± 42 gigatons (Gt) of mass, which accounts for up to 0.32 ± 0.11 mm of sea level rise over the full period of study. We observe a fourfold increase in mass loss rates between 2000–2009 [−2.9 ± 3.1 Gt yr−1] and 2009–2018 [−12.3 ± 4.6 Gt yr−1], and we attribute this change to a shift in regional meteorological conditions driven by the location and strength of upper level zonal wind. Our results document decadal‐scale climate variability over WNA that will likely modulate glacier mass change in the future.

Abstract. Seasonal measurements of glacier mass balance provide insight into the relation between climate forcing and glacier change. To evaluate the feasibility of using remotely sensed methods to assess seasonal balance, we completed tandem airborne laser scanning (ALS) surveys and field-based glaciological measurements over a 4-year period for six alpine glaciers that lie in the Columbia and Rocky Mountains, near the headwaters of the Columbia River, British Columbia, Canada. We calculated annual geodetic balance using coregistered late summer digital elevation models (DEMs) and distributed estimates of density based on surface classification of ice, snow, and firn surfaces. Winter balance was derived using coregistered late summer and spring DEMs, as well as density measurements from regional snow survey observations and our glaciological measurements. Geodetic summer balance was calculated as the difference between winter and annual balance. Winter mass balance from our glaciological observations averaged 1.95±0.09 m w.e. (meter water equivalent), 4 % larger than those derived from geodetic surveys. Average glaciological summer and annual balance were 3 % smaller and 3 % larger, respectively, than our geodetic estimates. We find that distributing snow, firn, and ice density based on surface classification has a greater influence on geodetic annual mass change than the density values themselves. Our results demonstrate that accurate assessments of seasonal mass change can be produced using ALS over a series of glaciers spanning several mountain ranges. Such agreement over multiple seasons, years, and glaciers demonstrates the ability of high-resolution geodetic methods to increase the number of glaciers where seasonal mass balance can be reliably estimated.