Increasingly, climate change impact assessments rely directly on climate models. Assessments of future water security depend in part on how the land model components in climate models partition precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff, and on the sensitivity of this partitioning to climate. Runoff sensitivities are not well constrained, with CMIP5 models displaying a large spread for the present day, which projects onto change under warming, creating uncertainty. Here we show that constraining CMIP5 model runoff sensitivities with observed estimates could reduce uncertainty in runoff projection over the western United States by up to 50%. We urge caution in the direct use of climate model runoff for applications and encourage model development to use regional-scale hydrological sensitivity metrics to improve projections for water security assessments.

Abstract Water managers are actively incorporating climate change information into their long- and short-term planning processes. This is generally seen as a step in the right direction because it supplements traditional methods, providing new insights that can help in planning for a non-stationary climate. However, the continuous evolution of climate change information can make it challenging to use available information appropriately. Advice on how to use the information is not always straightforward and typically requires extended dialogue between information producers and users, which is not always feasible. To help navigate better the ever-changing climate science landscape, this review is organized as a set of nine guidelines for water managers and planners that highlight better practices for incorporating climate change information into water resource planning and management. Each DOs and DON'Ts recommendation is given with context on why certain strategies are preferable and addresses frequently asked questions by exploring past studies and documents that provide guidance, including real-world examples mainly, though not exclusively, from the United States. This paper is intended to provide a foundation that can expand through continued dialogue within and between the climate science and application communities worldwide, a two-way information sharing that can increase the actionable nature of the information produced and promote greater utility and appropriate use.