Stable Fe isotopes have only recently been measured in freshwater systems, mainly in meromictic lakes. Here we report the δ56Fe of dissolved, particulate, and sediment Fe in two small dimictic boreal shield headwater lakes: manipulated eutrophic Lake 227, with annual cyanobacterial blooms, and unmanipulated oligotrophic Lake 442. Within the lakes, the range in δ56Fe is large (ca. -0.9 to +1.8‰), spanning more than half the entire range of natural Earth surface samples. Two layers in the water column with distinctive δ56Fe of dissolved (dis) and particulate (spm) Fe were observed, despite differences in trophic states. In the epilimnia of both lakes, a large Δ56Fedis-spm fractionation of 0.4-1‰ between dissolved and particulate Fe was only observed during cyanobacterial blooms in Lake 227, possibly regulated by selective biological uptake of isotopically light Fe by cyanobacteria. In the anoxic layers in both lakes, upward flux from sediments dominates the dissolved Fe pool with an apparent Δ56Fedis-spm fractionation of -2.2 to -0.6‰. Large Δ56Fedis-spm and previously published metagenome sequence data suggest active Fe cycling processes in anoxic layers, such as microaerophilic Fe(II) oxidation or photoferrotrophy, could regulate biogeochemical cycling. Large fractionation of stable Fe isotopes in these lakes provides a potential tool to probe Fe cycling and the acquisition of Fe by cyanobacteria, with relevance for understanding biogeochemical cycling of Earth's early ferruginous oceans.

Stable Fe isotopes have only recently been measured in freshwater systems, mainly in meromictic lakes. Here we report the δ56Fe of dissolved, particulate, and sediment Fe in two small dimictic boreal shield headwater lakes: manipulated eutrophic Lake 227, with annual cyanobacterial blooms, and unmanipulated oligotrophic Lake 442. Within the lakes, the range in δ56Fe is large (ca. -0.9 to +1.8‰), spanning more than half the entire range of natural Earth surface samples. Two layers in the water column with distinctive δ56Fe of dissolved (dis) and particulate (spm) Fe were observed, despite differences in trophic states. In the epilimnia of both lakes, a large Δ56Fedis-spm fractionation of 0.4-1‰ between dissolved and particulate Fe was only observed during cyanobacterial blooms in Lake 227, possibly regulated by selective biological uptake of isotopically light Fe by cyanobacteria. In the anoxic layers in both lakes, upward flux from sediments dominates the dissolved Fe pool with an apparent Δ56Fedis-spm fractionation of -2.2 to -0.6‰. Large Δ56Fedis-spm and previously published metagenome sequence data suggest active Fe cycling processes in anoxic layers, such as microaerophilic Fe(II) oxidation or photoferrotrophy, could regulate biogeochemical cycling. Large fractionation of stable Fe isotopes in these lakes provides a potential tool to probe Fe cycling and the acquisition of Fe by cyanobacteria, with relevance for understanding biogeochemical cycling of Earth's early ferruginous oceans.

Flow management has the potential to significantly affect ecosystem condition. Shallow lakes in arid regions are especially susceptible to flow management changes, which can have important implications for the formation of cyanobacterial blooms. Here, we reveal water quality shifts associated with changing source water inflow management. Using in situ monitoring data, we studied a seven-year time span during which inflows to a shallow, eutrophic drinking water reservoir transitioned from primarily natural landscape runoff (2014–2015) to managed flows from a larger upstream reservoir (Lake Diefenbaker; 2016–2020) and identified significant changes in cyanobacteria (as phycocyanin) using generalized additive models to classify cyanobacterial bloom formation. We then connected changes in water source with shifts in chemistry and the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms using principal components analysis. Phycocyanin was greater in years with managed reservoir inflow from a mesotrophic upstream reservoir (2016–2020), but dissolved organic matter (DOM) and specific conductivity, important determinants of drinking water quality, were greatest in years when landscape runoff dominated lake water source (2014–2015). Most notably, despite changing rapidly, it took multiple years for lake water to return to a consistent and reduced level of DOM after managed inflows from the upstream reservoir were resumed, an observation that underscores how resilience may be hindered by weak resistance to change and slow recovery. Environmental flows for water quality are rarely defined, yet we show that trade-offs exist between poor water quality via elevated conductivity and DOM and higher bloom risk, depending on water source. Our work highlights the importance of source water quality, not just quantity, to water security, and our findings have important implications for water managers who must protect ecosystem services while adapting to projected hydroclimatic change.

Monod growth kinetics predictions of competition outcomes between freshwater cyanobacteria and chlorophytes at low iron (Fe) was tested with dual-species competition experiments. Fe threshold concentrations (FeT) below which growth ceases and growth affinities (slope of Fe concentration vs growth rate near FeT) for three large-bodied cyanobacteria and two chlorophytes in batch cultures showed that cyanobacteria are more efficient at acquiring Fe and predicted that cyanobacteria will dominate chlorophytes at low Fe, similar to an earlier study where cyanobacteria were more efficient at acquiring phosphorus (P) at low P. The prediction of cyanobacteria dominance at low Fe was borne out in serial dilution competition experiments between a pico-cyanobacteria and a third chlorophyte. These results show that Monod kinetics can successfully predict competition outcomes between cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae in a laboratory setting at low Fe. However, while nutrient acquisition and growth kinetics are clearly important, other factors also influence competition between pico-cyanobacteria, large-bodied cyanobacteria, and eukaryotic algae in natural systems. These factors include the effect of cell surface area/volume ratio on cellular nutrient supply rates, cyanobacteria dependence on membrane transport of Fe+2, Fe+2 supply from anaerobic sediments, buoyancy regulation, and intensive grazing of pico-cyanobacteria.

Shifts in hydroclimatic regimes associated with global climate change may impact freshwater availability and quality. In high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, where vast quantities of carbon are stored terrestrially, explaining landscape-scale carbon (C) budgets and associated pollutant transfer is necessary for understanding the impact of changing hydroclimatic regimes. We used a dynamic modelling approach to simulate streamflow, DOC concentration, and DOC export in a northern Canadian catchment that has undergone notable climate warming, and will continue to for the remainder of this century. The Integrated Catchment model for Carbon (INCA-C) was successfully calibrated to a multi-year period (2012–2016) that represents a range in hydrologic conditions. The model was subsequently run over 30-year periods representing baseline and two future climate scenarios. Average discharge is predicted to decrease under an elevated temperature scenario (22–27 % of baseline) but increase (116–175 % of baseline) under an elevated temperature and precipitation scenario. In the latter scenario the nival hydroclimatic regime is expected to shift to a combined nival and pluvial regime. Average DOC flux over 30 years is predicted to decrease (24–27 % of baseline) under the elevated temperature scenario, as higher DOC concentrations are offset by lower runoff. Under the elevated temperature and precipitation scenario, results suggest an increase in carbon export of 64–81 % above baseline. These increases are attributed to greater connectivity of the catchment. The largest increase in DOC export is expected to occur in early winter. These predicted changes in DOC export, particularly under a climate that is warmer and wetter could be part of larger ecosystem change and warrant additional monitoring efforts in the region.

Cyanobacterial blooms present challenges for water treatment, especially in regions like the Canadian prairies where poor water quality intensifies water treatment issues. Buoyant cyanobacteria that resist sedimentation present a challenge as water treatment operators attempt to balance pre-treatment and toxic disinfection by-products. Here, we used microscopy to identify and describe the succession of cyanobacterial species in Buffalo Pound Lake, a key drinking water supply. We used indicator species analysis to identify temporal grouping structures throughout two sampling seasons from May to October 2018 and 2019. Our findings highlight two key cyanobacterial bloom phases - a mid-summer diazotrophic bloom of Dolichospermum spp. and an autumn Planktothrix agardhii bloom. Dolichospermum crassa and Woronichinia compacta served as indicators of the mid-summer and autumn bloom phases, respectively. Different cyanobacterial metabolites were associated with the distinct bloom phases in both years: toxic microcystins were associated with the mid-summer Dolichospermum bloom and some newly monitored cyanopeptides (anabaenopeptin A and B) with the autumn Planktothrix bloom. Despite forming a significant proportion of the autumn phytoplankton biomass (>60%), the Planktothrix bloom had previously not been detected by sensor or laboratory-derived chlorophyll-a. Our results demonstrate the power of targeted taxonomic identification of key species as a tool for managers of bloom-prone systems. Moreover, we describe an autumn Planktothrix agardhii bloom that has the potential to disrupt water treatment due to its evasion of detection. Our findings highlight the importance of identifying this autumn bloom given the expectation that warmer temperatures and a longer ice-free season will become the norm.

The neurotoxic alkaloid β-N-methyl-amino-l-alanine (BMAA) and related isomers, including N-(2-aminoethyl glycine) (AEG), β-amino-N-methyl alanine (BAMA), and 2,4-diaminobutyric acid (DAB), have been reported previously in cyanobacterial samples. However, there are conflicting reports regarding their occurrence in surface waters. In this study, we evaluated the impact of amending lake water samples with trichloroacetic acid (0.1 M TCA) on the detection of BMAA isomers, compared with pre-existing protocols. A sensitive instrumental method was enlisted for the survey, with limits of detection in the range of 5-10 ng L-1. Higher detection rates and significantly greater levels (paired Wilcoxon's signed-rank tests, p < 0.001) of BMAA isomers were observed in TCA-amended samples (method B) compared to samples without TCA (method A). The overall range of B/A ratios was 0.67-8.25 for AEG (up to +725%) and 0.69-15.5 for DAB (up to +1450%), with absolute concentration increases in TCA-amended samples of up to +15,000 ng L-1 for AEG and +650 ng L-1 for DAB. We also documented the trends in the occurrence of BMAA isomers for a large breadth of field-collected lakes from Brazil, Canada, France, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. Data gathered during this overarching campaign (overall, n = 390 within 45 lake sampling sites) indicated frequent detections of AEG and DAB isomers, with detection rates of 30% and 43% and maximum levels of 19,000 ng L-1 and 1100 ng L-1, respectively. In contrast, BAMA was found in less than 8% of the water samples, and BMAA was not found in any sample. These results support the analyses of free-living cyanobacteria, wherein BMAA was often reported at concentrations of 2-4 orders of magnitude lower than AEG and DAB. Seasonal measurements conducted at two bloom-impacted lakes indicated limited correlations of BMAA isomers with total microcystins or chlorophyll-a, which deserves further investigation.

Stable Fe isotopes have only recently been measured in freshwater systems, mainly in meromictic lakes. Here we report the δ56Fe of dissolved, particulate, and sediment Fe in two small dimictic boreal shield headwater lakes: manipulated eutrophic Lake 227, with annual cyanobacterial blooms, and unmanipulated oligotrophic Lake 442. Within the lakes, the range in δ56Fe is large (ca. -0.9 to +1.8‰), spanning more than half the entire range of natural Earth surface samples. Two layers in the water column with distinctive δ56Fe of dissolved (dis) and particulate (spm) Fe were observed, despite differences in trophic states. In the epilimnia of both lakes, a large Δ56Fedis-spm fractionation of 0.4-1‰ between dissolved and particulate Fe was only observed during cyanobacterial blooms in Lake 227, possibly regulated by selective biological uptake of isotopically light Fe by cyanobacteria. In the anoxic layers in both lakes, upward flux from sediments dominates the dissolved Fe pool with an apparent Δ56Fedis-spm fractionation of -2.2 to -0.6‰. Large Δ56Fedis-spm and previously published metagenome sequence data suggest active Fe cycling processes in anoxic layers, such as microaerophilic Fe(II) oxidation or photoferrotrophy, could regulate biogeochemical cycling. Large fractionation of stable Fe isotopes in these lakes provides a potential tool to probe Fe cycling and the acquisition of Fe by cyanobacteria, with relevance for understanding biogeochemical cycling of Earth's early ferruginous oceans.

Stable Fe isotopes have only recently been measured in freshwater systems, mainly in meromictic lakes. Here we report the δ56Fe of dissolved, particulate, and sediment Fe in two small dimictic boreal shield headwater lakes: manipulated eutrophic Lake 227, with annual cyanobacterial blooms, and unmanipulated oligotrophic Lake 442. Within the lakes, the range in δ56Fe is large (ca. -0.9 to +1.8‰), spanning more than half the entire range of natural Earth surface samples. Two layers in the water column with distinctive δ56Fe of dissolved (dis) and particulate (spm) Fe were observed, despite differences in trophic states. In the epilimnia of both lakes, a large Δ56Fedis-spm fractionation of 0.4-1‰ between dissolved and particulate Fe was only observed during cyanobacterial blooms in Lake 227, possibly regulated by selective biological uptake of isotopically light Fe by cyanobacteria. In the anoxic layers in both lakes, upward flux from sediments dominates the dissolved Fe pool with an apparent Δ56Fedis-spm fractionation of -2.2 to -0.6‰. Large Δ56Fedis-spm and previously published metagenome sequence data suggest active Fe cycling processes in anoxic layers, such as microaerophilic Fe(II) oxidation or photoferrotrophy, could regulate biogeochemical cycling. Large fractionation of stable Fe isotopes in these lakes provides a potential tool to probe Fe cycling and the acquisition of Fe by cyanobacteria, with relevance for understanding biogeochemical cycling of Earth's early ferruginous oceans.

Cyanobacterial blooms present challenges for water treatment, especially in regions like the Canadian prairies where poor water quality intensifies water treatment issues. Buoyant cyanobacteria that resist sedimentation present a challenge as water treatment operators attempt to balance pre-treatment and toxic disinfection by-products. Here, we used microscopy to identify and describe the succession of cyanobacterial species in Buffalo Pound Lake, a key drinking water supply. We used indicator species analysis to identify temporal grouping structures throughout two sampling seasons from May to October 2018 and 2019. Our findings highlight two key cyanobacterial bloom phases - a mid-summer diazotrophic bloom of Dolichospermum spp. and an autumn Planktothrix agardhii bloom. Dolichospermum crassa and Woronichinia compacta served as indicators of the mid-summer and autumn bloom phases, respectively. Different cyanobacterial metabolites were associated with the distinct bloom phases in both years: toxic microcystins were associated with the mid-summer Dolichospermum bloom and some newly monitored cyanopeptides (anabaenopeptin A and B) with the autumn Planktothrix bloom. Despite forming a significant proportion of the autumn phytoplankton biomass (>60%), the Planktothrix bloom had previously not been detected by sensor or laboratory-derived chlorophyll-a. Our results demonstrate the power of targeted taxonomic identification of key species as a tool for managers of bloom-prone systems. Moreover, we describe an autumn Planktothrix agardhii bloom that has the potential to disrupt water treatment due to its evasion of detection. Our findings highlight the importance of identifying this autumn bloom given the expectation that warmer temperatures and a longer ice-free season will become the norm.

Water science data are a valuable asset that both underpins the original research project and bolsters new research questions, particularly in view of the increasingly complex water issues facing Canada and the world. Whilst there is general support for making data more broadly accessible, and a number of water science journals and funding agencies have adopted policies that require researchers to share data in accordance with the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles, there are still questions about effective management of data to protect their usefulness over time. Incorporating data management practices and standards at the outset of a water science research project will enable researchers to efficiently locate, analyze and use data throughout the project lifecycle, and will ensure the data maintain their value after the project has ended. Here, some common misconceptions about data management are highlighted, along with insights and practical advice to assist established and early career water science researchers as they integrate data management best practices and tools into their research. Freely available tools and training opportunities made available in Canada through Global Water Futures, the Portage Network, Gordon Foundation's DataStream, Compute Canada, and university libraries, among others are compiled. These include webinars, training videos, and individual support for the water science community that together enable researchers to protect their data assets and meet the expectations of journals and funders. The perspectives shared here have been developed as part of the Global Water Futures programme's efforts to improve data management and promote the use of common data practices and standards in the context of water science in Canada. Ten best practices are proposed that may be broadly applicable to other disciplines in the natural sciences and can be adopted and adapted globally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Molot LA, Schiff SL, Venkiteswaran JJ, Baulch HM, Higgins SN, Zastepa A, Verschoor MJ, Walters D. 2021. Low sediment redox promotes cyanobacteria blooms across a trophic range: implications for man...

Abstract Two small, oligotrophic lakes at the IISD-Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, Canada were fertilized weekly with only phosphorus (P) in the summer and early fall of 2019. The P fertilization rates were high enough (13.3 µ g l −1 added weekly) to produce dense, month-long blooms of N 2 -fixing Dolichospermum species in both lakes within 9–12 weeks after fertilization began, turning them visibly green without the addition of nitrogen. P-only fertilization increased average seasonal chlorophyll a concentrations and cyanobacteria biomass well above the pre-fertilization levels of 2017 and 2018. Nitrogen (N) content in the epilimnion of thermally stratified Lake 304 and the water column of shallow Lake 303 doubled and P storage in the water column temporarily increased during the blooms. These whole-lake fertilization experiments demonstrate that large cyanobacteria blooms can develop rapidly under high P loading without anthropogenic N inputs, suggesting that aggressive N control programs are unlikely to prevent bloom formation and that P controls should remain the cornerstone for cyanobacteria management.

Phytoplankton blooms are a global water quality issue, and successful management depends on understanding their responses to multiple and interacting drivers, including nutrient loading and climate change. Here, we examine a long-term dataset from Lake 227, a site subject to a fertilization experiment (1969–present) with changing nitrogen:phosphorus (N:P) ratios. We applied a process-oriented model, MyLake, and updated the model structure with nutrient uptake kinetics that incorporated shifting N:P and competition among phytoplankton functional groups. We also tested different temperature and P-loading scenarios to examine the interacting effects of climate change and nutrient loading on phytoplankton blooms. The model successfully reproduced lake physics over 48 yr and the timing, overall magnitude, and shifting community structure (diazotrophs vs. non-diazotrophs) of phytoplankton blooms. Intra- and interannual variability was captured more accurately for the P-only fertilization period than for the high N:P and low N:P fertilization periods, highlighting the difficulty of modeling complex blooms even in well-studied systems. A model scenario was also run which removed climate-driven temperature trends, allowing us to disentangle concurrent drivers of blooms. Results showed that increases in water temperature in the spring led to earlier and larger phytoplankton blooms under climate change than under the effects of nutrient fertilization alone. These findings suggest that successful lake management efforts should incorporate the effects of climate change in addition to nutrient reductions, including intensifying and/or expanding monitoring periods and incorporating climate change into uncertainty estimates around future conditions.

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) represents a mixture of organic molecules that vary due to different source materials and degree of processing. Characterizing how DOM composition evolves along the aquatic continuum can be difficult. Using a size‐exclusion chromatography technique (liquid chromatography‐organic carbon detection [LC‐OCD]), we assessed the variability in DOM composition from both surface and groundwaters across a number of Canadian ecozones (mean annual temperature spanning −10°C to +6°C). A wide range in DOM concentration was found from 0.2 to 120 mg C L−1. Proportions of different size‐based groupings across ecozones were variable, yet similarities between specific waterbody types, regardless of location, suggest commonality in the processes dictating DOM composition. A principal component analysis identified 70% of the variation in LC‐OCD derived DOM compositions could be explained by the waterbody type. We find that DOM composition within a specific waterbody type is similar regardless of the differences in climate or surrounding vegetation where the sample originated from.

Gold mining operations near Yellowknife (Northwest Territories, Canada) released vast quantities of arsenic trioxide during the 1950s, which dispersed across the landscape. Contemporary measurements of arsenic concentrations in lake water and surficial sediment identify enrichment within a 30 km radius. However, paleolimnological studies have identified possible evidence of mining influence during the 1950s at a lake beyond this distance, suggesting a more expansive legacy footprint may exist. Here, we analyze spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from sediment cores at lakes located 10–40 km (near-field) and 50–80 km (far-field) from the mines along the prevailing northwesterly wind direction (NW) and 20–40 km to the northeast (NE) of the mines to improve characterization of the legacy footprint of emissions. We build upon previous findings to determine if: 1) there is evidence of mine-related pollutants beyond the well-established 30 km radius and 2) enrichment is greatest in the prevailing wind direction, as expected for aerial dispersion from a point source of emissions. Results demonstrate enrichment since the 1950s for arsenic and antimony at least as far as 80 km to the NW and 40 km to the NE, thus legacy deposition extended beyond the currently defined 30 km radius ‘zone of immediate influence’. Concentrations, enrichment factors, and total excess inventories of arsenic and antimony decline with distance from the mines and are greater along the prevailing (NW) than orthogonal (NE) wind direction. Peak concentrations in uppermost sediment strata at near-field lakes in the prevailing wind direction suggest supply of arsenic and antimony remains high from legacy stores in the catchment and lake sediment profiles >60 years after emissions were released. Such lasting influence of legacy emissions likely is not limited to mines in the Yellowknife region, and paleolimnological approaches can effectively delineate zones of past and ongoing pollution from legacy sources elsewhere. • We analyze metals in sediment cores to track dispersal of legacy mine emissions. • Enrichment of As and Sb evident beyond known 30-km radius pollution zone. • Distance from source and wind direction influenced contaminant dispersal. • Enriched surface sediments within 30 km suggest ongoing delivery of legacy metals.

Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) represents a mixture of organic molecules that vary due to different source materials and degree of processing. Characterizing how DOM composition evolves along the aquatic continuum can be difficult. Using a size-exclusion chromatography technique (LC-OCD), we assessed the variability in DOM composition from both surface and groundwaters across a number of Canadian ecozones (mean annual temperature spanning -10 to +6 C). A wide range in DOM concentration was found from 0.2 to 120 mg C/L. Proportions of different size-based groupings across ecozones were variable, yet similarities between specific water-body types, regardless of location, suggest commonality in the processes dictating the evolution of DOM composition. A principal-component analysis identified 70% of the variation in LC-OCD derived DOM compositions could be explained by the water-body type. We find that water-body type has a greater influence on DOM composition than differences in climate or surrounding vegetation.

Aquatic environments with high levels of dissolved ferrous iron and low levels of sulfate serve as an important systems for exploring biogeochemical processes relevant to the early Earth. Boreal Shield lakes, which number in the tens of millions globally, commonly develop seasonally anoxic waters that become iron rich and sulfate poor, yet the iron-sulfur microbiology of these systems has been poorly examined. Here we use genome-resolved metagenomics and enrichment cultivation to explore the metabolic diversity and ecology of anoxygenic photosynthesis and iron/sulfur cycling in the anoxic water columns of three Boreal Shield lakes. We recovered four high-completeness and low-contamination draft genome bins assigned to the class Chlorobia (formerly phylum Chlorobi) from environmental metagenome data and enriched two novel sulfide-oxidizing species, also from the Chlorobia. The sequenced genomes of both enriched species, including the novel "Candidatus Chlorobium canadense", encoded the cyc2 gene that is associated with photoferrotrophy among cultured Chlorobia members, along with genes for phototrophic sulfide oxidation. One environmental genome bin also encoded cyc2. Despite the presence of cyc2 in the corresponding draft genome, we were unable to induce photoferrotrophy in "Ca. Chlorobium canadense". Genomic potential for phototrophic sulfide oxidation was more commonly detected than cyc2 among environmental genome bins of Chlorobia, and metagenome and cultivation data suggested the potential for cryptic sulfur cycling to fuel sulfide-based growth. Overall, our results provide an important basis for further probing the functional role of cyc2 and indicate that anoxygenic photoautotrophs in Boreal Shield lakes could have underexplored photophysiology pertinent to understanding Earth's early microbial communities.

The increasing prevalence of cyanobacteria-dominated harmful algal blooms is strongly associated with nutrient loading and changing climatic patterns. Changes to precipitation frequency and intensity, as predicted by current climate models, are likely to affect bloom development and composition through changes in nutrient fluxes and water column mixing. However, few studies have directly documented the effects of extreme precipitation events on cyanobacterial composition, biomass, and toxin production. We tracked changes in a eutrophic reservoir following an extreme precipitation event, describing an atypically early toxin-producing cyanobacterial bloom and successional progression of the phytoplankton community, toxins, and geochemistry. An increase in bioavailable phosphorus by more than 27-fold in surface waters preceded notable increases in Aphanizomenon flos-aquae throughout the reservoir approximately 2 weeks postevent and ∼5 weeks before blooms typically occur. Anabaenopeptin-A and three microcystin congeners (microcystin-LR, -YR, and -RR) were detected at varying levels across sites during the bloom period, which lasted between 3 and 5 weeks. These findings suggest extreme rainfall can trigger early cyanobacterial bloom initiation, effectively elongating the bloom season period of potential toxicity. However, effects will vary depending on factors including the timing of rainfall and reservoir physical structure.

Abstract Cyanobacterial blooms are causing increasing issues across the globe. Bloom forecasting can facilitate adaptation to blooms. Most bloom forecasting models depend on weekly or fortnightly sampling, but these sparse measurements can miss important dynamics. Here we develop forecasting models from five years of high frequency summer monitoring in a shallow lake (which serves as an important regional water supply). A suite of models were calibrated to predict cyanobacterial fluorescence (a biomass proxy) using measurements of: cyanobacterial fluorescence, water temperature, light, and wind speed. High temporal autocorrelation contributed to relatively strong predictive power over 1, 4 and 7 day intervals. Higher order derivatives of water temperature helped improve forecasting accuracy. While traditional monitoring and modelling have supported forecasting on longer timescales, we show high frequency monitoring combined with telemetry allows forecasting over timescales of 1 day to 1 week, supporting early warning, enhanced monitoring, and adaptation of water treatment processes.

Abstract The increasing prevalence of cyanobacteria-dominated harmful algal blooms is strongly associated with nutrient loading and changing climatic patterns. Changes to precipitation frequency and intensity, as predicted by current climate models, are likely to affect bloom development and composition through changes in nutrient fluxes and water column mixing. However, few studies have directly documented the effects of extreme precipitation events on cyanobacterial composition, biomass, and toxin production. We tracked changes in a eutrophic reservoir following an extreme precipitation event, describing an atypically early toxin-producing cyanobacterial bloom, successional progression of the phytoplankton community, toxins, and geochemistry. An increase in bioavailable phosphorus by more than 27-fold in surface waters preceded notable increases in Aphanizomenon flos-aquae throughout the reservoir approximately 2 weeks post flood and ~5 weeks before blooms typically occur. Anabaenopeptin-A and three microcystin congeners (microcystin-LR, -YR, and -RR) were detected at varying levels across sites during the bloom period, which lasted between 3 and 5 weeks. Synthesis and applications: These findings suggest extreme rainfall can trigger early cyanobacterial bloom initiation, effectively elongating the bloom season period of potential toxicity. However, effects will vary depending on factors including the timing of rainfall and reservoir physical structure. In contrast to the effects of early season extreme rainfall, a mid-summer runoff event appeared to help mitigate the bloom in some areas of the reservoir by increasing flushing.

Storage and removal of nutrients by wetlands and riparian areas is an important process in understanding catchment nutrient fluxes and in helping to mitigate current issues of eutrophication in man...