• Lack of pre-industrial baseline data hampers assessment of oil sands river pollution. • We analyzed metals concentrations in cores of Athabasca Delta floodplain lakes. • No enrichment was detected for metals associated with oil sands development. • Results inform decision on World Heritage status of Wood Buffalo National Park. • A framework has been established for ongoing aquatic ecosystem monitoring. Sediment quality monitoring is widely used to quantify extent of river pollution, but requires knowledge of pre-disturbance conditions in the potentially altered landscape. This has long been identified as a critical aspect to develop for addressing concerns of river pollution in the Alberta Oil Sands Region. Here, we use analyses of sediment cores from eight floodplain lakes spanning a 67 river-km transect across the Athabasca Delta to define pre-1920 (pre-industrial) baseline concentrations for vanadium and five primary pollutants. We then evaluate if sediment metals concentrations have become enriched above baseline since onset of oil sands development and other industrial activities. Results demonstrate no enrichment of metals concentrations (except zinc at one lake) and absence of consistent temporal increases above pre-industrial baselines. Thus, natural processes continue to dominate metal deposition in floodplain lakes of the Athabasca Delta -- an important finding to inform stewardship decisions. The pre-1920 metals concentrations baselines offer a useful tool for ongoing sediment monitoring in aquatic ecosystems of the Athabasca Delta.

[1] Previous studies of river hydrometric records and Indigenous Knowledge holders claim that flood-induced recharge of ecologically important perched basins decreased across the Peace-Athabasca Delta after 1968 due mainly to hydroelectric regulation of Peace River flow. Natural deltaic processes and climate are acknowledged as additional, lesser contributors, but are challenging to evaluate. We use sediment records spanning ∼115 years from nine perched basins across the Athabasca Delta to test if unidirectional drying coincides with river regulation. Results show bi-directional hydrological changes since the early 1980s, not 1968, to reduced flooding in areas east of the Embarras River confluence with Cree/Mamawi creeks and increased flooding northward along the Cree/Mamawi distributary. The timing and pattern pinpoint the 1982 Embarras Breakthrough, a natural avulsion that diverted flow northward and away from the Athabasca Delta terminus, as the principal cause. The results demonstrate the need to factor natural deltaic processes into impending decisions on the delta’s UNESCO World Heritage status and implementation of a federal Action Plan to mitigate widespread drying.