Abstract Globally, the extent of inland wetlands has declined by approximately 70% since the start of the twentieth century, resulting in the loss of important wetland-associated ecosystem services. We evaluate the drivers of wetland values in agricultural landscapes to increase the effectiveness and reliability of benefit transfer tools to assign values to local wetland services. We reviewed 668 studies that analyzed wetland ecosystem services within agricultural environments and identified 45 studies across 22 countries that provided sufficient economic information to be included in a quantitative meta-analysis. We developed meta-regression models to represent provisioning and regulating wetland ecosystem services and identify the main drivers of these ecosystem service categories. Provisioning wetland ecosystem service values were best explained (direction of effects in parenthesis) by high-income variable (+), peer-reviewed journal publications (+), agricultural total factor productivity index (−) and population density (+), while agricultural total factor productivity index (−), income level ( +) and wetland area (−) had significant effects on regulating wetland ecosystem service values. Our models can help estimate wetland values more reliably across similar regions because they have significantly lower transfer errors (66 and 185% absolute percentage error for the provisioning and regulating models, respectively) than the errors from unit value transfers. Model predicted wetland values ($/Ha/Year) range from $0.62 to $11,216 for regulating services and $0.95 to $2,122 for provisioning services and vary based on the differences in the levels of the variables (in the wetland locations) that best explained the estimated models.

Extensive wetland drainage has occurred across the Canadian Prairies, and drainage activities are ongoing in many areas (Dahl 1990; Watmough and Schmoll 2007; Bartzen et al. 2010; Dahl 2014; Prairi...

• Time-varying GSA offers a good understanding of the coupled human-natural systems. • Economy is the most influential factor in the rebound phenomenon of the BRB. • Social interaction had a high total-effect on the rebound phenomenon of the BRB. • Raising farmers’ awareness by formal channels could avoid the rebound phenomenon. • Switching to crops needing less water could prevent the rebound phenomenon. Modernizing traditional irrigation systems has long been recognized as a means to reduce water losses. However, empirical evidence shows that this practice may not necessarily reduce water use in the long run; in fact, in many cases, the converse is true—a concept known as the rebound phenomenon. This phenomenon is at the heart of a fundamental research gap in the explicit evaluation of co-evolutionary dynamics and interactions among socio-economic and hydrologic factors in agricultural systems. This gap calls for the application of systems-based methods to evaluate such dynamics. To address this gap, we use a previously developed Agent-Based Agricultural Water Demand (ABAD) model, applied to the Bow River Basin (BRB) in Canada. We perform a time-varying variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the ABAD model to examine the individual effect of factors, as well as their joint effect, that may give rise to the rebound phenomenon in the BRB. Our results show that economic factors dominantly control possible rebounds. Although social interaction among farmers is found to be less influential than the irrigation expansion factor, its interaction effect with other factors becomes more important, indicating the highly interactive nature of the underlying socio-hydrological system. Based on the insights gained via GSA, we discuss several strategies, including community participation and water restrictions, that can be adopted to avoid the rebound phenomenon in irrigation systems. This study demonstrates that a time-varying variance-based GSA can provide a better understanding of the co-evolutionary dynamics of the socio-hydrological systems and can pave the way for better management of water resources.

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‘I would walk to the end of the street and out over the prairie with the clickety grasshoppers bunging in arcs ahead of me and I could hear the hum and twang of the wind in the great prairie harp o...