• Time-varying GSA offers a good understanding of the coupled human-natural systems. • Economy is the most influential factor in the rebound phenomenon of the BRB. • Social interaction had a high total-effect on the rebound phenomenon of the BRB. • Raising farmers’ awareness by formal channels could avoid the rebound phenomenon. • Switching to crops needing less water could prevent the rebound phenomenon. Modernizing traditional irrigation systems has long been recognized as a means to reduce water losses. However, empirical evidence shows that this practice may not necessarily reduce water use in the long run; in fact, in many cases, the converse is true—a concept known as the rebound phenomenon. This phenomenon is at the heart of a fundamental research gap in the explicit evaluation of co-evolutionary dynamics and interactions among socio-economic and hydrologic factors in agricultural systems. This gap calls for the application of systems-based methods to evaluate such dynamics. To address this gap, we use a previously developed Agent-Based Agricultural Water Demand (ABAD) model, applied to the Bow River Basin (BRB) in Canada. We perform a time-varying variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the ABAD model to examine the individual effect of factors, as well as their joint effect, that may give rise to the rebound phenomenon in the BRB. Our results show that economic factors dominantly control possible rebounds. Although social interaction among farmers is found to be less influential than the irrigation expansion factor, its interaction effect with other factors becomes more important, indicating the highly interactive nature of the underlying socio-hydrological system. Based on the insights gained via GSA, we discuss several strategies, including community participation and water restrictions, that can be adopted to avoid the rebound phenomenon in irrigation systems. This study demonstrates that a time-varying variance-based GSA can provide a better understanding of the co-evolutionary dynamics of the socio-hydrological systems and can pave the way for better management of water resources.

• Organic layer dry thermal conductivity dominates ground thaw uncertainty. • Significant snowpack and active layer changes are expected under climate warming. • Data poor regions would benefit from pursuing physically based approaches to reduce uncertainty. To predict future hydrological cycling in permafrost-dominated regions requires consideration of complex hydrological interactions that involve cryospheric states and fluxes, and hence thermodynamics. This challenges many hydrological models, particularly those applied in the Arctic. This study presents the implementation and validation of set of algorithms representing permafrost and frozen ground dynamics, coupled into a physically based, modular, cold regions hydrological model at two tundra sites in northern Yukon Territory, Canada. Hydrological processes represented in the model include evapotranspiration, soil moisture dynamics, flow through organic and mineral terrain, ground freeze–thaw, infiltration to frozen and unfrozen soils, snowpack energy balance, and the accumulation, wind redistribution, sublimation, and canopy interception of snow. The model was able to successfully represent observed ground surface temperature, ground thaw and snow accumulation at the two sites without calibration. A sensitivity analysis of simulated ground thaw revealed that the soil properties of the upper organic layer dominated the model response; however, its performance was robust for a range of realistic physical parameters. Different modelling decisions were assessed by removing the physically based algorithms for snowpack dynamics and ground surface temperature and replacing them with empirical approaches. Results demonstrate that more physically based approaches should be pursued to reduce uncertainties in poorly monitored environments. Finally, the model was driven by three climate warming scenarios to assess the sensitivity of snow redistribution and ablation processes and ground thaw to warming temperatures. This showed great sensitivity of snow regime and soil thaw to warming, even in the cold continental climate of the northwestern Canadian Arctic. The results are pertinent to transportation infrastructure and water management in this remote, cold, sparsely gauged region where traditional approaches to hydrological prediction are not possible.

• Boreal forests evaporate considerably more than higher elevation shrub ecosystems. • Forests exist in a growing season water deficit relying on snowmelt recharge. • ET variability declines with increased vegetation cover. • Majority of growing season water for streamflow is generated at higher elevations. • We propose treeline advance will result in drying of northern catchments. As a result of altitude and latitude amplified climate change, widespread changes in vegetation composition, density and distribution have been observed across northern regions. Despite wide documentation of shrub proliferation and treeline advance, few field-based studies have evaluated the hydrological implications of these changes. Quantification of total evapotranspiration (ET) across a range of vegetation gradients is essential for predicting water yield, yet challenging in cold alpine catchments due to heterogeneous land cover, including both boreal forest and shrub taiga ecosystems. Here, we present six years of surface energy balance components and ET dynamics at three sites along an elevational gradient in a subarctic, alpine catchment near Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada. These sites span a gradient of thermal and vegetation regimes, providing a space-for-time comparison for future ecosystem shifts: 1) a low-elevation boreal white spruce forest (~12–20 m), 2) a mid-elevation subalpine taiga comprised of tall, dense willow ( Salix ) and birch ( Betula ) shrubs (~1–3 m) and 3) a high-elevation subalpine taiga with short, sparse shrub cover (<0.75 m) and moss, lichen, and bare rock. Eddy covariance instrumentation ran year-round at the forest and during the growing season at the two shrub sites. Total ET decreased and interannual variability increased with elevation, with mean May to September ET totals of 349 (±3) mm at the forest, 249 (±10) mm at the tall, dense shrub site, and 240 (±26) mm at the short, sparse shrub site. Comparatively, over the same period, ET:R ratios were the highest and most variable at the forest (2.19 ± 0.37) and similar at the tall, dense shrub (1.22 ± 0.09) and short, sparse shrub (1.14 ± 0.05) sites. Our results suggest that advances in treeline will increase overall ET and lower interannual variability; however, the large growing season water deficit at the forest indicates strong reliance on soil moisture from late fall and snowmelt recharge. In contrast, ET was considerably less at the cooler higher elevation shrub sites , which exhibited similar ET losses over 6 years despite differences in shrub height and abundance. ET rates between the two shrub sites were similar throughout the year, except during the peak growing season. Greater interannual variability in ET at the short, sparse shrub site indicates the reduced influence of vegetation controls on ET. Results suggest that predicted changes in vegetation type and structure in northern regions will have a considerable impact on water partitioning and will vary in a complex way in response to changing precipitation timing, phase and magnitude, growing season length, and vegetation snow and rain interactions.